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Analyst Makes Bombshell Prediction Of $50 Oil, And More Production Than We Could Possibly Know What

Business Insider -- For the US economy, this would be a 'Black Swan' of a totally different variety.

In Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's 2013 Energy Outlook, analyst Sabine Schels and colleagues make a shocking prediction about the possible path of West Texas Intermediate oil.

Surging US shale oil output creates risk of $50 WTI North America’s energy supplies are surging while the rest of the world continues to fight for scarce molecules of oil and gas. On our estimates, onshore US crude oil output now vastly exceeds previous growth rates in liquids and nat gas, particularly in Lower 48 states. With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices. Indeed, we see a risk of WTI te

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Submitted Dec 02, 2012 By: skb69sa

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honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,632 Points:1,610,495 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Dec 6, 2012 3:54:49 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse diesel still up and going higher again.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,632 Points:1,610,495 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Dec 5, 2012 3:44:11 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse I won't hold my breath.
DanMtz Champion Author Oakland Posts:3,360 Points:1,244,300 Joined:Oct 2009	Message Posted: Dec 3, 2012 5:56:56 PM Ignore DanMtz Report Abuse But, at some price point it doesn't make sense to produce oil and so the supply decreases...
WalkingWV Champion Author West Virginia Posts:3,701 Points:779,595 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 9:16:32 PM Ignore WalkingWV Report Abuse Pfft, yes, $50 oil and still $3 gas. yippee
prcoqui Champion Author Maryland Posts:3,960 Points:1,675,150 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 7:08:26 PM Ignore prcoqui Report Abuse In his dreams.
underbird10 Sophomore Author Atlanta Posts:166 Points:21,150 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 4:19:58 PM Ignore underbird10 Report Abuse The most important statement in that article: "With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports, we expect WTI prices to continue to lag international prices." What is important about it is that we will continue to allow domestic oil monopolies to exploit our resources and sell to the highest bidder on the open market. Our fuel and commodity prices will therefore be determined by global markets, not domestic markets. Meanwhile, the monopolies get richer while everyone else gets poorer.
camaro_man Champion Author Kitchener-Waterloo Posts:2,237 Points:612,020 Joined:Jun 2010	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 3:39:17 PM Ignore camaro_man Report Abuse yeah right,,like that will happen...
gas_too_high Champion Author Columbus Posts:11,549 Points:1,934,415 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 2:15:09 PM Ignore gas_too_high Report Abuse Quite interestin. I'm not sure if I believe it though. That would mean gas prices at the pump should go down significantly, which in this year where pump prices in most of the country never went below $3 is hard to believe. I found this interesting: " With profitability for US domestic oil producers very high and no change in sight to US rules preventing crude oil exports..." I had no idea that was true. I hope at the least there are exceptions for Canada and Mexico. GTH
wshutton Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:1,672 Points:925,170 Joined:Mar 2009	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 2:08:00 PM Ignore wshutton Report Abuse This just in: "Analyst Wants Press Attention!"
CheckitoutGuy Champion Author San Diego Posts:1,311 Points:769,590 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:58:07 PM Ignore CheckitoutGuy Report Abuse could be good?
7SPEEDY7 Champion Author Flint Posts:1,296 Points:607,400 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:36:52 PM Ignore 7SPEEDY7 Report Abuse Drill Baby Drill!!
diesel8888 Champion Author Salt Lake City Posts:1,197 Points:360,360 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:48:15 PM Ignore diesel8888 Report Abuse Sounds like this article was written in a bar during happy hour....
nehemiah Champion Author Portland Posts:4,766 Points:931,590 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:39:18 PM Ignore nehemiah Report Abuse it's easy to make prediction
Romey08 Champion Author Virginia Posts:6,311 Points:1,436,490 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:38:02 PM Ignore Romey08 Report Abuse No more imports needed and we can finally get out of the middle east.
Garston Champion Author Maine Posts:2,421 Points:473,765 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:36:48 PM Ignore Garston Report Abuse Of course
momof5MN Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:4,059 Points:214,935 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:36:28 PM Ignore momof5MN Report Abuse EPA will make quick work of this.
suzyq2007 Champion Author Dallas Posts:7,174 Points:1,651,900 Joined:Oct 2007	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:36:27 PM Ignore suzyq2007 Report Abuse we can only hope
PetroCrap Sophomore Author Toronto Posts:200 Points:108,275 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:36:27 PM Ignore PetroCrap Report Abuse SO WHAT!!! $50 oil does not turn into $1/gal for gasoline or diesel.The oil companies will just do a lot of "refinery maintenance" to make sure the supply of refined product stays low enough to keep the prices high enough so that some yahoo in a suit can take home a bigger bonus than last year.
ezone Champion Author Florida Posts:2,421 Points:947,860 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:36:11 PM Ignore ezone Report Abuse While it makes for interesting reading, I don't think a glut of domestically produced oil is a real concern under the leadership (?) of Emperor Obozo.
DesertRat2011 Champion Author Riverside Posts:3,623 Points:486,780 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:35:21 PM Ignore DesertRat2011 Report Abuse Yea right
GManCo Champion Author Colorado Springs Posts:5,001 Points:952,565 Joined:Sep 2010	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:34:31 PM Ignore GManCo Report Abuse When we drill for our own oil, the price will come down. THAT IS NO SURPRISE.
Gramps001 Champion Author North Carolina Posts:5,862 Points:1,366,365 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:32:31 PM Ignore Gramps001 Report Abuse I'll have what Joe is drinking or taking!
tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:33,047 Points:2,346,485 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:32:24 PM Ignore tomok Report Abuse Analyst Makes Bombshell Prediction Of $50 Oil, And More Production Than We Could Possibly Know What(?) - that would be nice but $50 Oil will Not happen and there will be More production of oil and natural gas from US shale. Naural Gas production is exceeding the demand and the price of natural gas is going down fast. Gas prices going down at the pump is 'a good thing' for a much better economy, more than what Sneeky could ever hope to accomplish in the last four years or the next four years. The price at the pump needs to go down to $2/gallon, $3, $3.50/gallon or *$4.00 is Not the new low! More refineries is Not the answer either, keep the exported fuel and natural gas here. If Big Oil can produce that much fuel for export, there is No need for More refineries! The only reason Sneeky has Not limited fuel exporting is that it's paying for his huge overspending of the taxpayers money. Whatever the size or shape of the vehicle, vehicle manufactures Produce and the population ‘Drives’ vehicles with high MPG, are very safe, reliable, have a ‘reasonable’ cost and a good ‘value’ for the money. The price of fuel at the pump is too high! XII/XXII/MMXII!
bmsgolf Champion Author Amarillo Posts:2,052 Points:455,230 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:32:00 PM Ignore bmsgolf Report Abuse Lets see!
smoketown Champion Author Cincinnati Posts:6,241 Points:1,383,825 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:31:50 PM Ignore smoketown Report Abuse Speculators will fix that.............
BudsterMO Champion Author Kansas City Posts:3,715 Points:704,905 Joined:Aug 2009	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:31:22 PM Ignore BudsterMO Report Abuse It could work!
fieldt Champion Author Lansing Posts:3,935 Points:730,475 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:30:22 PM Ignore fieldt Report Abuse Doubt it, but watch the economy friggen take off if it happens.
vernsimpson Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:1,017 Points:260,755 Joined:Jul 2012	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:27:55 PM Ignore vernsimpson Report Abuse What color is the sky in his world?
postcard9 All-Star Author Massachusetts Posts:883 Points:515,445 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:26:42 PM Ignore postcard9 Report Abuse Yeah right.
bigmace111 Champion Author Albany Posts:2,728 Points:615,575 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:26:41 PM Ignore bigmace111 Report Abuse I hope so, but I don't think that it will happen.
MJIOWA Champion Author Iowa Posts:4,828 Points:1,078,920 Joined:Nov 2009	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:24:38 PM Ignore MJIOWA Report Abuse i like it
TA33 Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:1,492 Points:322,765 Joined:Apr 2012	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:22:10 PM Ignore TA33 Report Abuse Ok
bluetatanka Champion Author Philadelphia Posts:56,200 Points:782,805 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:15:44 PM Ignore bluetatanka Report Abuse Ah, c'mon!
amayne11 Champion Author Vancouver Posts:1,757 Points:500,870 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:14:12 PM Ignore amayne11 Report Abuse I wish
cutter1330 Champion Author Oklahoma Posts:8,040 Points:1,695,090 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:11:47 PM Ignore cutter1330 Report Abuse Bet the speculators slap this analyst cross-eyed!!
mandoid Champion Author Colorado Springs Posts:7,306 Points:1,528,025 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:11:29 PM Ignore mandoid Report Abuse very much doubt this will happen, but if it does...
sp364TN Veteran Author Memphis Posts:256 Points:249,135 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:11:17 PM Ignore sp364TN Report Abuse sounds good
Stevedog Champion Author Michigan Posts:3,858 Points:1,946,870 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:08:12 PM Ignore Stevedog Report Abuse a small group of people getting their opinion posted online
manaknight14 All-Star Author Pennsylvania Posts:538 Points:430,835 Joined:Oct 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:04:47 PM Ignore manaknight14 Report Abuse The chart showing how much oil is being shipped by rail is astounding. This has a lot to do with the Obama administration's blocking of the Keystone project that would increase our pipeline infrastructure. One of the biggest beneficiaries of all that rail shipping is Obama's buddy Warren Buffett.
Ken2OD Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:9,077 Points:1,972,915 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:04:26 PM Ignore Ken2OD Report Abuse Man, what is this dude smokin'?
cucamongacurtis Champion Author San Bernardino Posts:1,044 Points:221,085 Joined:Oct 2012	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:04:21 PM Ignore cucamongacurtis Report Abuse And gasoline is still too expensive.
NavyStore Champion Author Seattle Posts:3,860 Points:2,077,120 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:03:25 PM Ignore NavyStore Report Abuse So the GOP blames Obama for preventing domestic drilling - which he obviously has not - and now we are predicting so much of those products that the oil companies MUST export it in order to stay profitable, completely gutting the idea behind domestic drilling (lower prices and energy independence)... Only in America!!
autohio Champion Author Ohio Posts:3,780 Points:820,450 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 12:01:15 PM Ignore autohio Report Abuse Uh huh
gamalerin Champion Author Tampa Posts:4,757 Points:994,485 Joined:Jul 2010	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:59:43 AM Ignore gamalerin Report Abuse I don't think so.
AcuraTSX Champion Author Ohio Posts:5,499 Points:2,183,105 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:58:43 AM Ignore AcuraTSX Report Abuse Not part of Obama's plan.
Samo1961 Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:1,900 Points:621,650 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:58:12 AM Ignore Samo1961 Report Abuse This is totally possible, but I wonder if gas prices will also be drastically lowered.
tdc007 Champion Author Lexington Posts:1,118 Points:383,830 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:56:56 AM Ignore tdc007 Report Abuse A nice dream.
GrandAmNC Veteran Author North Carolina Posts:342 Points:174,790 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:55:39 AM Ignore GrandAmNC Report Abuse Keep dreaming
05HD All-Star Author Cincinnati Posts:869 Points:133,170 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:55:37 AM Ignore 05HD Report Abuse I PREDICT ????????????????????????????? DUH.
abacus44 Champion Author Toms River Posts:3,485 Points:749,465 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 11:55:28 AM Ignore abacus44 Report Abuse As if this is believable